|
Why Would Bush Do It?
(after the election
of course)
1. Pre-emptive War Creates the
Need
The
Bush Doctrine of "pre-emptive" war has led
us to a valid war against the Taliban in Afghanistan after September 11,
but then to unjustified unilateral action against Iraq. Though the
Bush administration claimed Iraq had links to al Qaeda and that there was
a current danger to the U.S. from his weapons of mass destruction,
neither has proven to be the
case. And it may be just the beginning of the Bush military
march on the Arab world. Iran, Syria and others have been discussed
as possible next targets.
2. Unsustainable Troop Levels
According to an
article in the November 7 New York Times,
According to the Pentagon
troop rotation plan announced by Mr. Rumsfeld, 8 of the Army's 10 active
divisions will be on their way to Iraq and Afghanistan or returning from
those countries over the next several months — the largest single
movement of Army forces since World War II. Only two active Army
divisions — the Second Infantry Division, which defends South Korea, and
the Third Infantry Division, which took Baghdad and only recently
returned home — are not part of the rotation. A division typically
numbers 15,000 to 20,000 troops.
That's not the whole story. Three Army National Guard brigades — about
5,000 troops each — are being deployed to Iraq. So are the Marines, who
left Iraq after turning their responsibilities over to a Polish-led
division in September. With the Army short of troops and foreign troops
scarce, the Marines are being tapped to serve in Iraq again. The First
Marine Division will supply a headquarters that will command a combined
force of some 20,000 Marines as well as Army troops.
A major worry for the Army is also that a third year of large-scale
deployments in Iraq will make it difficult to retain the noncommissioned
officers and experienced reserves that are needed for a quality
volunteer force. Reserves will account for more than a third of the
troops deployed in Iraq next year. Retention is a lagging indicator, but
the anecdotal indications from reservists in Iraq is that some will
leave the military at the first opportunity if they conclude that it
entails regular yearlong tours away from home.
No doubt the Defense Department projects that the occupation force in
2005 will be a fraction of the current troop presence. But that is what
the Defense Department initially projected for September 2003.
"Sending the Guard",
By MICHAEL R.
GORDON, NY Times 11/7/03
3. No Quick
Solution to Pacify Iraq
There are some very
strong arguments to suggest that the country will not be pacified
any time soon. The Iraqi Council is barely functioning, the
Sunni’s hate us more with every passing day and there are many
thousands whose livelihoods are gone along with Hussein, the
borders are porous so that lots of Islamic militants have free
access, The Shiite’s are not really very stable and would no doubt
fight among themselves and with the Sunnis if the U.S. leaves.
The Kurds are the one bright spot since the Turks were smart
enough to stay out, but if the Kurds assert more independence from
the central government, Turkey will feel threatened and trouble
could start. The whole place is a mess.
4.
Our Patriotic Duty will be Called
After the election,
the President will no doubt again call on the American people to
fight terrorism (especially if there is any kind of attack in the
U.S.) and the bandwagon to start the draft will be underway.
"[M]ilitary observers and
some members of Congress say that the notion of a possible military
draft is gaining traction, in part because of questions from Democrats
in Congress about the conduct of the Iraqi reconstruction, from retired
military officers who are worried that the force is too small to
accomplish such a big and difficult job -- and because of the
administration itself.
The Defense Department fueled the debate this week when it placed a
notice on its Web site asking for "men and women in the community who
might be willing to serve as members of a local draft board.""
"Talk
of a draft grows despite denials by White House"
CHARLES
POPE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER 11/7/03
4. When will Bush Re-instate the
Draft?
Before the election? Oh NO.
After the election?
Wakeup America.
|
Bush and
the Draft*
Bush . . .could be forced into it
by events. Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel, a likely presidential
candidate in 2008, says that a draft "might become necessary" in the
years ahead. The threshold question before the election is this: which
candidate is more likely to have so few international friends amid a
crisis that he would have to move beyond the all-volunteer force? This
question takes the seemingly arcane issue of burden-sharing and brings
it home to the American heartland. If we need, God forbid, to occupy
another country that truly threatens the United States, we will either
do it with the help of our allies or with the conscription of our
kids. . . Every military expert agrees that the Army is already badly
overstretched . . .Guard recruitment is down 12 percent, and
Reservists as old as their late 40s are being mobilized. . . soldiers
at Fort Carson, Colo., for instance, have been told that if they don't
re-up to 2007 they will be shipped out pronto for Iraq.
Jonathan Alter,
Newsweek, 10/4/04 issue
MORE
Bush
Draft Proposal?*
"Defense manpower
officials concede there are critical shortages of military personnel
with certain special skills, such as medical personnel linguists,
computer network engineers, etc. The costs of attracting and
retaining such personnel for military-service could be prohibitive,
leading some officials to conclude that while a conventional draft may
never be needed, a draft of men and women possessing these critical
skills may be warranted in a future crisis, if too few volunteer. .
.In addition to the basic identifying information collected in the
current program, the expanded and revised program would require all
registrants to require all registrants to indicate whether they have
been trained in, possess, and professionally practice, one or more
skills critical to national security . . Men and women would
enter on the SSS registration form a multi-digit number representing
their specific critical skill"
DOD Issue
Paper, 2/11/03 MORE
Read
the Bush Selective Service System Plan
The
Selective Service System (SSS), in accordance with the provisions of
the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), developed this
Annual Performance Plan (APP) for FY 2004. This Plan, aligned with the
SSS’ Strategic Plan (FY 2001 - 2006), is an outgrowth of extensive
internal evaluations of Agency statutory responsibilities viewed in
light of new challenges, fiscal issues, and needs of Agency customers.
Measurement of the Agency’s institutional progress toward improvement
in programmatic activities, service to customers, and the prudent
management of fiscal resources forms the basis for the
development of this plan. Ultimately, performance measurement provides
the path of accountability between the Agency’s long-term vision and
the day-to-day activities of its employees.
Selective
Service System Plan, 2004
MORE
Military Solutions and the
Draft*
[Given] the
political unpopularity of a return of the draft, it seems highly
unlikely that a bill to return the draft would be enacted before the
election in November.
A draft seems
more likely in 2005 or beyond if we stay in Iraq with large numbers of
troops, if re-enlistments of military personnel fall dramatically as
some predict, if our government decides to wage pre-emptive war on
another country and if we continue to address international problems
with military solutions. Using military solutions before
exhausting all other solutions is wrong. We have learned in Iraq that
military solutions don't work, don't build a country. Too many families,
both Iraqi and American, have lost precious members to death and injury.
Carol Van Houten, The
Register-Guard, 6/25/04
Would a Second Bush Term Mean a Return to Conscription? Why Dodging
the Draft Would Be Trickier Than You Think
by Maureen Farrell, BuzzFlash.com,
November 11, 2003
Link to
full Article
Excerpts:
Michael O'Hanlon, of the Brookings Institution, tried to be equally
reassuring. "Even if one imagines a major ground war against Iraq or
Afghanistan," he said, "these are the sorts of things that we've been
planning to do with our active duty force for a long time." O'Hanlon
added that the only scenario under which a draft might occur would be if
the US were to occupy another country for an extended period of time.
"If we had a five-year occupation ... and needed to help shepherd in new
governments before we could withdraw -- just as we did in Germany and
Japan after World War II, then conceivably you would get into the kinds
of manpower requirements that would advise in favor of a draft," he
said, on Sept. 18, 2001
. . . .
So now that occupation "ifs" have become reality, concerns that the US
military is stretched too thin are being voiced regularly. And news that
the Pentagon is advertising for personnel to staff draft boards has
notched up speculation. "This is significant," Dartmouth presidential
scholar and former professor of strategy at the National War College in
Washington Ned Lebow said. "What the department of defense is doing is
creating the infrastructure to make the draft a viable option should the
administration wish to go this route." . . .
"The experts are all saying we're going to have to beef up our presence
in Iraq," Rangel said in the Nov. 3, 2003 edition of Salon.com. "We've
failed to convince our allies to send troops, we've extended deployments
so morale is sinking, and the president is saying we can't cut and run.
So what's left? The draft is a very sensitive subject, but at some
point, we're going to need more troops, and at that point the only way
to get them will be a return to the draft."
. . .
1) No college deferments:
. . .
2) Smarter borders:
In Dec., 2001, Canada and the US signed a "Smart Border Declaration,"
which, in addition to keeping terrorists out of America, could also be
used to keep would-be draft dodgers in.
Many in
the well-informed audience were surprised at provisions of the [No
Child Left Behind] law, even after having heard about it for a year.
In particular, several attendees were stunned to hear that high
schools must produce a list of all enrolled students for the draft
board.
Jackie Burrell
CONTRA COSTA TIMES
George Bush:
Sky Pilot*
"He smiles at the young soldiers
Tells them it's alright
He knows of their fear
In the forthcoming fight.
Soon there'll be blood
And many will die
Mothers and Fathers
Back home they will cry".
"Sky Pilot"
Eric Burdon
and the Animals, February 1968
|
News about
the Draft
Draft
back on US agenda *
THE United
States would "have to face" a painful dilemma on restoring the military
draft as rising casualties saw the number of volunteers dry up, a
senator warned today. Joseph Biden, the top Democrat on the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, made the prediction after new data released
by the Pentagon showed the US Army failing to meet its recruitment
targets for four straight months. "We're going to have to face
that question," he said on NBC's Meet the Press TV show when asked if it
was realistic to expect restoration of the draft. "The truth of
the matter is, it is going to become a subject, if, in fact, there's a
40 per cent shortfall in recruitment. It's just a reality," he said.
The comment came after the Department of Defence announced the army had
missed its recruiting goal for May by 1661 recruits, or 25 per cent.
Maxim Kniazkov, News.com.au, 6/13/05
MORE
Draft in a
Year? *
What
Would You Call That Breeze I Feel? *
The
Selective Service System is looking for men and women to serve as
members of local boards that are currently in a standby mode. A
prospective member must be a United States citizen, at least 18 years
old, registered with the Selective Service (if male), not employed in
law enforcement, not an active or retired Armed Forces member and not
convicted in any criminal offense. . . .If a military draft becomes
necessary, approximately 2,000 local and appeal boards throughout the
nation would decide which young men in each community receive
deferments, postponements or exemptions from military service, based
on federal guidelines and community standards. . .visit
www.sss.gov
and click on
"Board Member Application." Aberdeen
News (MD), 1/13/05
MORE
Students and the Draft *
More
Troops to Iraq; More Need for a Draft*
Concerned
that they won't get enough new troops from allies to help provide
security for Iraqi elections in January, Pentagon officials are
considering increasing the current U.S. force by delaying the
departures of some U.S. troops now in Iraq and accelerating the
deployment of others scheduled to go there next year. The goal is to
temporarily raise the number of U.S. troops in Iraq from the current
138,000 to almost 160,000 to help protect international and Iraqi
election workers and secure polling locations. That addition
would bring the sustained U.S. troop presence in Iraq to its highest
level since President Bush declared an end to major combat operations
on May 1, 2003. . .Four Defense officials with direct knowledge of
troop planning for Iraq . . .asked not to be identified because troop
matters are highly sensitive and decisions have not yet been finalized.
USA TODAY,
10/26/04
MORE
Feeling the Draft
Those who are worrying about a revived draft are in
the same position as those who worried about a return to budget
deficits four years ago, when President Bush began pushing
through his program of tax cuts. Back then he insisted that he
wouldn't drive the budget into deficit - but those who looked at the
facts strongly suspected otherwise. Now he insists that he won't
revive the draft. But the facts suggest that he will. . .Mr. Bush's
claim that we don't need any expansion in our military is patently
unrealistic; it ignores the severe stress our Army is already under.
And the experience in Iraq shows that pursuing his broader foreign
policy doctrine - the "Bush doctrine" of pre-emptive war - would
require much larger military forces than we now have. This
leads to the justified suspicion that after the election, Mr. Bush
will seek a large expansion in our military, quite possibly through
a return of the draft.
Krugman,
NY Times, 10/19/04
MORE
Youth
Awaken to Bush Danger?*
Election
interest at this stage of the 2004 presidential campaign is
substantially higher than during the same period of the 2000 campaign.
Of the two leading issues of the campaign, Iraq rather than the
economy is the main reason for the surge. . .Young
adults have been particularly responsive to the Iraq issue. Among
adults who are 30 years of age or younger, 72 percent of those for
whom Iraq is the top issue say they have been paying relatively close
attention to the campaign. . .Young adults’ election involvement is
perhaps higher in 2004 than in any presidential election since 1972.
That election, too, was waged against the backdrop of a controversial
war—the conflict in Vietnam. . .Turnout is likely to increase more
sharply among young adults who have attended or are currently in
college. Compared with young adults who have not attended college,
Vanishing
Voter Project’s national survey of September 8-12
MORE
Bush
Post-Election Inductions*
Kerry, who a
day earlier insisted Bush has failed to be truthful about a
deteriorating situation in Iraq, accused the president of secretly
planning a post-election call-up of Guard and reserve units. "He
won't tell us what congressional leaders are now saying, that this
administration is planning yet another substantial call-up of
reservist and Guard units immediately after the election," Kerry said
at a town hall-style meeting at a community center in the battleground
state of New Mexico. "Hide it from people through the election, then
make the move."
Kerry's comments came as Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) issued a statement
in which he said he had learned through conversations with Pentagon
officials that beginning in November, "the Bush administration plans
to call up large numbers of the military Guard and Reserves, to
include plans that they previously had put off to call up the
Individual Ready Reserve." Frank
James and Rick Pearson, Chicago Tribune, 9/18/04
MORE
Volunteer Army?
The
Pentagon is
forcing thousands of discharged soldiers back into the military, but
that does not mean the United States needs to reinstate the draft, the
chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said Sunday. "I
can tell you the all-volunteer forces worked” when former President
Nixon ended conscription during the Vietnam War, said Sen. John
Warner, who was Nixon’s secretary of the Navy in 1973. . . Sandy
Berger, who served as national security adviser under President Bill
Clinton, told "Meet the Press" that the order showed that the Bush
administration had not planned adequately for postwar Iraq. "I think
in a manner of speaking, these people have left the Army involuntarily
now called back.
Associated Press, 7/4/04
A
Draft by Any Other Name *
Amid
Congressional concerns that the military is stretched too thin, the
Army is preparing to take advantage of a rarely used wartime program
that allows it to recall soldiers who have left the service and did
not join the reserves. Pentagon officials said Tuesday that 5,600
former soldiers were going to be called up for yearlong tours, mostly
assignments in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The decision was immediately cited by members of Congress as more
evidence that the deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan and, more
broadly, for the global campaign against terrorism, have left the Army
unable to fulfill all its missions. . . some lawmakers have described
the large reserve mobilizations and other unusual steps to fill the
rosters in Iraq and Afghanistan as an unofficial draft.
THOM SHANKER, NY
Times, 6/29/04
Reasons for a Return of
the Draft
Analysts say
there are two main reasons the idea [of reviving the draft] keeps
coming back. One is that even with its 1.4 million active-duty
volunteers and thousands more reservists, the United States seems to
have too few troops for the wars it is fighting.
The other is a kind of guilt that the cost of the wars is being paid
by very few Americans, analysts said.
The war in Iraq, coming on top of the global war on terrorism, has
caused unprecedented strain on U.S. armed forces. The Defense
Department has stopped thousands of soldiers from leaving when their
enlistment times were up, made some stay longer in Iraq than the
promised year, made unprecedented use of the National Guard and
Reserve forces and is bringing troops from Korea for the first time in
decades as it struggles to maintain more than 138,000 in Iraq.
PAULINE
JELINEK, Associated Press, 5/31/04
Bush
Prepares for Draft*
The chief of
the Selective Service System has proposed registering women for the
military draft and requiring that young Americans regularly inform the
government about whether they have training in niche specialties
needed in the armed services. The proposal, which the
agency's acting Director Lewis Brodsky presented to senior Pentagon
officials just before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, also seeks to
extend the age of draft registration to 34 years old, up from 25.
The
Selective Service System plan, obtained under the Freedom of
Information Act, highlights the extent to which agency officials have
planned for an expanded military draft in case the administration and
Congress would authorize one in the future.
ERIC ROSENBERG
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER, 5/1/04
Bush War
Leads toward the Draft*
Someone
finally said it aloud and it turned out to be Sen. Chuck Hage [r] of
Nebraska. The country needs to think about drafting young people
into the military, Hagel said.
He added that even certain rodents in D.C. know that the war is going
to require lots more of the public treasure.
Hallelujah! The king is as obviously naked as a streaker on the 50
yeard line. America's far-flung interventions and its role as
bodyguard in many nations have stretched the military too thin, Hagel
said. . . A song performed by the late Phil Ochs in the 1960s noted:
"It's always the old who lead us to the war; it's always the young who
fall ..." ED
HOWARD, Nebraska StatePaper.com 4/22/04
Military
Draft of IT and Language Specialists *
The
Selective Service System has begun the process of creating the
procedures and policies to conduct such a targeted draft in case
military officials ask Congress to authorize it and the lawmakers
agree to such a request.
Richard Flahavan, a spokesman for the Selective Service System, said
planning for a possible draft of linguists and computer experts had
begun . . .The
issue of a renewed draft has gained attention because of concerns that
U.S. military forces are over-extended. Since the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist strikes, U.S. forces have fought two wars, established a
major military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq and are now taking on
peacekeeping duties in Haiti.
Eric Rosenberg, Hearst
Newspapers, 3/11/04
Rumsfeld on
the Draft
Q:
Could I take you back to the strain on the military of fighting a war
in Iraq and the war on terrorism? And just for clarity, do you
absolutely rule out ever recommending to the president that a draft be
reinstituted? Is that just a bad policy?
Rumsfeld: If -- I never rule out anything almost; almost never. I
guess never say never. But I just -- if I saw a circumstance where the
national security of our country was such that it was not being
properly defended because we were unable to attract and retain the
forces we needed, and the only alternative were to turn to compulsion,
obviously, anyone with the responsibility to defend the country would
turn to whatever direction you had to turn to to see that you were
capable and competent to protect the American people.
United States Department of Defense. News Transcript 1/6/04
Bush's
"Volunteer" Army*
The Army
will prohibit troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan from retiring
or leaving the service for other reasons for up to 90 days after
arriving at their home bases, military officials said Monday. . .Ted
Carpenter, a defense analyst with the Cato Institute think tank, said
the "stop loss" decision undercuts the concept of an all-volunteer
military, which America has maintained for three decades.
"Clearly, if large numbers of personnel have their terms extended
against their will, that violates the principle of volunteerism,"
Carpenter said. . .
Carpenter said if the personnel strains continue or worsen, the
Pentagon may feel compelled to return to a military draft.
Reuters
on CNN.com, 1/5/04
Is
the US Army too small? A Pentagon briefing last week raised that
issue when officials said only two of the Army's active divisions
not deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan will be combat-ready during six
months next year. Four other divisions coming home from Iraq will
need that time - the usual period following deployment - to rest,
retrain, and reequip.
. .The
Pentagon says the force is large enough. Yet a number of retired
generals in recent years have complained otherwise. Congress should
keep the matter under constant review.
Christian Science Monitor Editorial
12/8/03
Reserves,
Guard . . .Draft?*
Reserve
and National Guard troops will play an
increasingly important role in the next rotation. By spring,
reservists will represent about 37 percent of the total force in
Iraq, or 39,000 troops, compared with about 22 percent now, or
28,000 troops. The big difference is that the reservists in Iraq now
are support personnel. In the next rotation, there will be 15,000
troops from three National Guard combat brigades.
The large-scale mobilization of reservists,
and the strains it places on their families and employers, has been
a difficult issue for the Pentagon, and military officials had
sought to limit this next round of call-ups.
ERIC SCHMITT and
THOM SHANKER, NY Times, 11/19/03
Rumsfeld Goal is
not to reduce U.S. forces in Iraq
"As we
replace
U.S. forces serving in Iraq, beginning next
year, the level of coalition and U.S. forces will depend on the
security situation on the ground and also on the pace at which Iraqi
forces, security forces, are able to assume additional
responsibilities. But let me be clear. The goal is not to reduce
the number of U.S. forces in Iraq. It's not to develop an exit
strategy. Our exit strategy in Iraq is success. It's that simple."
Rumsfeld,
11/10/03
Wakeup America: NEWSWEEK POLL:
Saturday November 8,
Americans
are not worried about a renewal of the draft; 63 percent of those
polled say the U.S. commitment to rebuilding Iraq will not lead to a
reinstatement of a military draft in America; 23 percent say it
will. NEWSWEEK
WEB EXCLUSIVE
The Draft!*
according to a story by Dave Lindorff in Salon.com, the administration
has launched a low-profile recruiting effort to fill vacancies in local
draft boards. Board members, wrote Lindorff, "report that at training
sessions last summer, they were unexpectedly asked to fill some of the
estimated 16 percent of board seats that are vacant nationwide." .
. . "We must significantly
increase the active duty end strength of the military," says Rep. Adam
Smith, D-Wash., an Armed Services Committee member, "and reduce the
reliance on the Guard and Reserve for those functions that will be
needed for the war on terrorism." The CBO estimates another two
Army divisions might cover it -- which also raises the question of
whether the Army could raise two more divisions of volunteers. Sarasohn, The Oregonian, 11/7/03
Why Would
Bush Bring Back the Draft (after the election)?
"The
shoot-down of a Chinook helicopter earlier this week, causing the death
of 15 soldiers and the wounding of another 21, is a good example of the
problem. It turns out this military disaster was, in large part, the
direct result of a shortage of troops on the ground. With the military's
134,000 troops in Iraq spread so thin, there was nobody available to
secure the area around the helicopter landing zone in what is
acknowledged to be a high-risk area. Because helicopters are
particularly vulnerable to attack during their slow landings and
ascents, it is standard procedure to secure the perimeter of landing
areas, but in this instance, the military had to abandon standard
practice and take a chance. There were no soldiers available to protect
the area."
from A Draft in the Forcast?, Dave
Lindroff, CounterPunch 11/5/03
Why Would
Bush Bring Back the Draft (after the election)?
"The
shoot-down of a Chinook helicopter earlier this week, causing the death
of 15 soldiers and the wounding of another 21, is a good example of the
problem. It turns out this military disaster was, in large part, the
direct result of a shortage of troops on the ground. With the military's
134,000 troops in Iraq spread so thin, there was nobody available to
secure the area around the helicopter landing zone in what is
acknowledged to be a high-risk area. Because helicopters are
particularly vulnerable to attack during their slow landings and
ascents, it is standard procedure to secure the perimeter of landing
areas, but in this instance, the military had to abandon standard
practice and take a chance. There were no soldiers available to protect
the area."
from A Draft in the Forcast?, Dave
Lindroff, CounterPunch 11/5/03
Will U.S. bring
back the draft?
A number of analysts said yesterday that while
any public suggestion of a draft would be politically suicidal for
U.S. President George W. Bush in an election year, he could find
himself with few other options if he is returned for a second term
and the fighting in Iraq is still raging.
Bush, touring fire-ravaged regions of California yesterday, again
vowed troops will never cut and run in Iraq, even as attacks on
Americans escalate.
The draft was abolished here three decades ago as the Vietnam War
wound down, and the defence department notice about draft boards is
on an obscure link on its Web site.
TIM HARPER,
Toronto Star, 11/5/03
Appeal for draft
board volunteers revives memories of Vietnam era
|
