Commentary and Predictions from Before the Iraq War

SEE:  Claims Vs. Facts from American Progress                   What the Army War College Predicted  

Pre-War Commentary Today's Reality

How much will war cost?

 

Iraq War Cost Estimates over 10 Years

Per Iraqi

Per American

Per person in World

Optimistic

$99 billion *

$4,125

$341

$16

High

$1,924 billion *

$80,167

$6,628

$305

Moderate

$242 billion**

$10,083

$834

$38

*  William D.. Nordhaus, Dept. of Economics at Yale (Bush Alma Mater), 2002  NOTE:  NOTE:  These costs are the total for the decade following the conflict (e.g., 2003-2012). Negative numbers are benefits.  DETAILS


**
Costanzo.org estimate   DETAILS
Population:  World --  6,315 million; U.S. = 290 million, Iraq = 24

Estimated Cost to Date:

 

Cost of the War in Iraq    To see more details, click here
 

 

What the Army War College Predicted

 

Pre-War Commentary Today's Reality

Excerpt from:

RECONSTRUCTING IRAQ: INSIGHTS, CHALLENGES, AND MISSIONS FOR MILITARY FORCES IN A POST-CONFLICT SCENARIO
Conrad C. Crane
W. Andrew Terrill

February 2003

"Successfully executing the postwar occupation of Iraq is consequently every bit as important as winning the war.  Preparing for the postwar rehabilitation of the Iraqi political system will probably be more difficult and complex than planning for combat. Massive resources need to be focused on this effort well before the first shot is fired.  Thinking about the war now and the occupation later is not an acceptable solution. Without an overwhelming effort to prepare for occupation, the United States may find itself in a radically different world over the next few years, a world in which the threat of Saddam Hussein seems like a pale shadow of new problems of America’s own making."

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Dr. Conrad Crane was in charge of an Army War College faculty
team that included Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Colonel George Oliver,
Colonel Stephen Kidder, Colonel Tom McShane, LTC Mike Esper, and
Professor William Kiehl. Colonel Robert McClure of DCS, G-3
coordinated support from the Army Staff. Interim reports were
prepared and presented to a joint and interagency workshop conducted
by Dr. Crane and Dr. Terrill in December. Outside attendees were from
the Department of Defense, the State Department, the Joint Staff, the
Army Staff, National Defense University, Joint Forces Command,
AUSA/RAMP, and SAIC. Especially notable were contributions from
Dr. John Finney, RADM(ret) John Siglar, Colonel Paul Hughes, Colonel
(retired) Scott Feil, Mr. Joseph (Barry) Hughes, LTC Guy Sands-Pingot,
and Ms. Sarah E. Peter.
NOTICES
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do
not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of
the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This
report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be
forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War
College, 122 Forbes Ave., Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report
may be obtained from the Publications Office by calling (717) 245-4133,
FAX (717) 245-3820, or be e-mail at Rita.Rummel@carlisle.army.mil

Description of Iraq today by an Iraqi guerilla fighter as described by Paul McGeough, TheAge.com (Australia)

Ahmed [an Iraqi guerilla fighter] describes a Sunni resistance that is a disciplined, religiously focused force. Asked where authority rests, he says: "It's with the sheikhs in the mosques; Baath Party people and former members of the military are not allowed to be our leaders. Baathists are losers - they didn't succeed when they worked for the party.

"We now have a single, jihadist leadership group that operates nationally. The number of foreigners who are coming to help us is increasing - Syrian, Palestinian, Saudi and Qatari. US claims about al-Qaeda and Ansar al Islam are just propaganda."

Then he repeats the argument that is in much of the anti-US graffiti around Baghdad: "We suffered under Saddam and we hate him, but we would put him in our hearts ahead of a Christian or a Jew - because he is a Muslim."

This pocket of the resistance calls itself the Army of Right. Estimates of the resistance fighters on call are as high as 7000, but Ahmed and Haqi will not discuss numbers. Paul McGeough, TheAge.com (Australia), August 16, 2003